College football bowl projections in Week 10: Texas A&M ahead in SEC, Notre Dame flexes playoff seed

Oct 28, 2024

Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Oregon made statements against ranked competition as the streaking trio moved up in college football's updated bowl projections as playoff hopefuls in Week 10. The Fighting Irish took advantage of numerous Navy fumbles to thwart the previously-unbeaten Midshipmen while the Aggies erased a 10-point deficit against LSU and the Ducks shut down Illinois.

The first College Football Playoff rankings release a week from Tuesday and offers an early glimpse at who the selection committee believes are the 12 best teams. Those not in the playoff top 12 at the end of conference championship weekend in December will be assigned to bowl games within their respective conference tie-ins by ESPN.

Colorado reached bowl eligibility for the first time under Deion Sanders, beating Cincinnati, and the Buffaloes are not done since they're only one game back of unbeatens BYU and Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship conversation.

RELATED: Projecting the latest AP Top 25 rankings after Week 9 results

Here are the updated bowl projections and picks for the playoff entering Week 10:

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Projected matchup: Baylor vs. Rutgers

Here's a pair of 4-4 teams after Week 9, but one is reeling — the Scarlet Knights lost four straight — and the other appears to have found their stride. Rutgers failed to show on Friday night at USC while the Bears sent Oklahoma State to its fifth Big 12 loss. That's hard to believe for the Cowboys, who reached the conference championship game last fall and returned most of their starters.

Armed Forces Bowl

Projected matchup: Marshall vs. ECU

68 Ventures Bowl

Projected matchup: UConn vs. Arkansas State

Los Angeles Bowl

Projected matchup: Arizona State vs. UNLV

UNLV nearly hopped back into the Group of Five's playoff conversation on Friday against Boise State, but could not hold on to a fourth-quarter lead during a 29-24 setback. And with Liberty's shocking loss to Kennesaw State, the Group of Five picture appears to be down to four teams — Boise State, Army, Navy and Tulane.

New Orleans Bowl

Projected matchup: Louisiana Monroe vs. Liberty

Boca Raton Bowl

Projected matchup: Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia Southern

Frisco Bowl

Projected matchup: North Texas vs. JMU

Camellia Bowl

Projected matchup: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State

Gasparilla Bowl

Projected matchup: Arkansas vs. Army

Army watched fellow service academy Navy fall from the ranks of the unbeaten and national rankings against Notre Dame in blowout fashion, something the Black Knights will try and avoid next month. If Army can beat the Fighting Irish and win the AAC, Todd Monken's squad trumps Boise State in the Group of Five race and reach the playoff. But what's the likelihood in both those scenarios happening?

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Projected matchup: WKU vs. Louisiana

Cure Bowl

Projected matchup: USF vs. Coastal Carolina

Hawaii Bowl

Projected matchup: Fresno State vs. Tulane

The Green Wave control their destiny in the AAC Championship race on the strength of five-consecutive wins. That said, two losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma in September will be critical when the selection committee evaluates this group very soon. If Tulane wins out, the Green Wave need a loss from Boise State to finish ahead of the Broncos.

Detroit Bowl

Projected matchup: Maryland vs. Eastern Michigan

Potato Bowl

Projected matchup: Western Michigan vs. New Mexico

Liberty Bowl

Projected matchup: Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati

Vanderbilt nearly took down another elite program, but ran out of time against Texas. No team outside of the playoff in college football is going to enjoy its trip to bowl season like the Commodores, a reward for an impressive campaign under Clark Lea. Vanderbilt travels to Auburn next in SEC play, then hosts South Carolina.

New Mexico Bowl

Projected matchup: Texas State vs. San Diego State

Las Vegas Bowl

Projected matchup: Colorado vs. Ole Miss

Deion Sanders vs. Lane Kiffin in Las Vegas? That's a matchup made for bowl season. Unfortunately, chances are low to see Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, Jaxson Dart and a host of other projected 2025 NFL Draft picks from both teams. The Buffaloes show notable improvement in Sanders' second season, but the Rebels — a preseason top 10 team — fell short of sizable expectations.

Fenway Bowl

Projected matchup: Memphis vs. Georgia Tech

Birmingham Bowl

Projected matchup: Michigan State vs. Florida

Billy Napier and the Gators in a bowl game? With four wins entering murderer's row in November beginning with next week's showdown against Georgia, Florida needs to beat the Bulldogs, Texas, Ole Miss or LSU over its next four matchups to have a shot. The season finale at Florida State should be a victory considering how awful the Seminoles are.

Pinstripe Bowl

Projected matchup: Minnesota vs. Duke

Arizona Bowl

Projected matchup: San Jose State vs. Buffalo

Military Bowl

Projected matchup: Navy vs. North Carolina

After an emotional week in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels snapped a four-game losing skid with a dominant win at Virginia, not a place that's often kind to North Carolina. Mack Brown's team needs to, at worst, split its final four games against Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College and NC State to hit six victories. The Midshipmen's playoff hopes might be over after taking one on the chin against Notre Dame, 51-14.

Independence Bowl

Projected matchup: TCU vs. Oregon State

Sun Bowl

Projected matchup: USC vs. Virginia Tech

The Trojans finally looked like a team without mass issues during Friday night's blowout win over Rutgers during what's been an otherwise forgettable first season in the Big Ten for Lincoln Riley. Virginia Tech handled Georgia Tech and its talent-strapped offense that was playing without starting quarterback Haynes King for the second consecutive game.

Bahamas Bowl

Projected matchup: NIU vs. Sam Houston State

Music City Bowl

Projected matchup: Michigan vs. South Carolina

The Wolverines play three top-15 opponents the rest of the season, but luckily, Michigan gets a home game with Northwestern on Nov. 23 that should result in bowl eligibility. South Carolina has a prime opportunity next week at stopping its losing skid against top 25 opponents under Shane Beamer with Texas A&M coming to town. The Aggies are the SEC's lone remaining unbeaten team in conference action.

Texas Bowl

Projected matchup: Missouri vs. Texas Tech

First Responder Bowl

Projected matchup: Toledo vs. Colorado State

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Projected matchup: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

The Panthers bullied their way in the playoff conversation with an unbeaten record, thus far, for the first time in decades after Week 9. Pat Narduzzi's team finds a different way to win every week, proving that point after scoring three defensive touchdowns in the first half of a blowout victory over Syracuse. The ACC title picture becomes more clear after Pittsburgh and Clemson meet in a few weeks.

Holiday Bowl

Projected matchup: SMU vs. Washington State

Mayo Bowl

Projected matchup: Iowa vs. Louisville

Citrus Bowl

Projected matchup: Alabama vs. Illinois

This is not where the Crimson Tide want to be to end Kalen DeBoer's first season and there's still time to get back into a playoff projection. Winning out is a necessity, however. That would include a victory next month at LSU, which was one of the SEC's lone unblemished teams in conference prior to falling at Texas A&M. Saturday's win over Missouri keeps Alabama in the mix.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Projected matchup: Tennessee vs. Nebraska

Gator Bowl

Projected matchup: LSU vs. Syracuse

Speaking of conference title contenders, LSU whiffed on its opportunity to move into the driver's seat in the SEC after squandering a 10-point lead at halftime of Saturday's loss at Texas A&M. The Tigers have previously won their last 104 games when leading by double digits at intermission. That's a painful stat for Brian Kelly. LSU has not played in the Gator Bowl since 1987.

Alamo Bowl

Projected matchup: Washington vs. Kansas State

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas

No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Miami

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Penn State

Notre Dame would be inside the top four right now had the Fighting Irish taken care of business against Northern Illinois. Regardless, they are playing their best football at the right time after Saturday's squashing on Navy. ... Texas A&M and Indiana are the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds, respectively, after staying put atop the league title races in the SEC and Big Ten as conference unbeatens.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 BYU

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Clemson

No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia

No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon

It's all-chalk in our projected quarterfinal matchups at bowl sites with no upsets expected in the first round. For now, expect to see at least one showdown pitting the same conference given the breadth of quality teams across the Big Ten and SEC this fall. The No. 4 overall seed is the toughest to call at the moment with Iowa State and BYU being the Big 12's two frontrunners.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia

Could the four most-talented teams in the country meet for a pair of rematches? When there's a multi-team playoff, the best rise to the top. The Big Ten and SEC are the two best leagues, and it would only be fitting for the national champion to emerge from one of them. Oregon and Georgia took victories in the first wave of action.